Trump and Harris woo Christian voters in final spurt of election campaign

Kevin Hayes is firmly convinced that the path to the White House leads through the state of Pennsylvania. Without its 19 electoral votes, none of the US presidential candidates could win a majority in the Electoral College on 5 November. "Pennsylvania is a perfect mirror of America," explains the Catholic, who is campaigning for Kamala Harris with his organisation "Catholics Vote Common Good". The state unites rich and poor, urban and rural, and the most diverse ethnic groups.

Pennsylvania reflects the national trend. In the latest polls, Republican Donald Trump and Democrat Kamala Harris are virtually tied. This means that every vote really does count in the final sprint. A fierce battle is therefore raging in the state for the votes of Catholics, who make up around a quarter of the electorate. Their best-known representative is incumbent Joe Biden, who grew up in the industrial city of Scranton.

Volunteers ringing doorbells

A recent poll shows Harris in Pennsylvania with a razor-thin lead of 49 to 48 per cent among Catholic voters. Catholics reflect a similar gender gap to the overall electorate, with 57 per cent of Catholic women leaning towards Harris, while 57 per cent of Catholic men favour Trump. "We're betting everything on Pennsylvania," says Brian Burch, chairman of the Catholic Vote organisation, which effectively acts as Trump's Catholic mobilisation campaign in the swing states. The group likes to point out that the Republican vice-candidate J.D. Vance is a devout Catholic. In Pennsylvania, it is focussing on a personal approach. More than 500,000 handwritten postcards have already been sent to Catholic voters.

The volunteers from "Catholics Vote Common Good" are also writing to the faithful. The group has built up a database of thousands of Catholics. Hayes organises virtual meetings, door-to-door visits and telephone campaigns. "We need to think about the common good and look at the candidates through the lens of Catholic social teaching," he says.

Trump seeks to close ranks with evangelicals and Catholics over the alleged shared experience of marginalisation. At an event in the swing voter state of Georgia, he claimed that devout Christians were being politically persecuted by the Democrats. Harris wants to turn them into "second-class citizens". In an interview with the conservative Catholic broadcaster EWTN, the candidate presented himself as a protector. He is a long-time supporter, Trump said. "I love the Catholic Church to no end." However, he grew up as a Presbyterian and is not known for a particularly pious lifestyle.

Mixed polls

Kamala Harris also has no Catholic pedigree. However, she emphasises the importance of an active faith. For example, when she recently spoke about a "loving God" at the New Birth Missionary Baptist Church in Georgia. This calls on us to "stand up for those who cannot defend themselves". In a CNN citizens' programme, she also stated that she prays twice a day.

Polls among religious voters are mixed. A recent survey by Rasmussen Reports shows that nationally, 51 per cent of Christian voters plan to vote for Trump, while 42 per cent prefer Harris. Trump is particularly strong among evangelical voters, who support him 61 per cent to 29 per cent. Among Catholics, he leads with 48 to 43 per cent. Overall, the economy is the most important issue among US Christians at 75 per cent, followed by immigration (60 per cent) and healthcare (53 per cent). Abortion and other controversial issues rank lower.

Catholic convert J.D. Vance nevertheless always emphasises the controversies surrounding the rights of sexual minorities in his appearances before Christian voters. At an event in the swing state of Wisconsin, he accused the Democrats of having "declared a culture war on Christians". Trump, on the other hand, is a defender of traditional values.

Political scientist expects heart-stopping finale

Vance warns that the Catholic Church will suffer even more if the Democrats win. The controversy surrounding the Democratic governor of the swing state of Michigan, Gretchen Whitmer, fits into the persecution narrative. Trump's campaign accuses her of mocking the Holy Eucharist in a TikTok video. She firmly rejects this.

Both sides are aware of the importance of the Catholic electorate in Pennsylvania and are investing heavily in the election campaign. Political scientist Geoffrey Layman from the University of Notre Dame expects a heart-stopping finale: "The mobilisation has to go perfectly for both candidates if they want to have a chance."