Theologian on US election: Massive polarisation could continue

Donald Trump will be sworn in as the 47th President of the United States of America on 20 January 2025. His election victory on Wednesday caused both surprise and concern. Many Catholics voted in favour of the Republican candidate, helping him to win the election. But why is that? In an interview with katholisch.de, Eichstätt dogmatist and USA expert Benjamin Dahlke talks about Trump's election victory and what it means for the Catholic Church in the USA, the universal church, the pontificate of Pope Francis and American society.

Question: Professor Dahlke, according to exit polls, 56 per cent of Catholics voted for Trump - compared to 61 per cent of Protestants/Evangelicals and only 22 per cent of Jews. Why did so many Catholics vote for Trump?

Dahlke: First of all, we are talking about Catholics in the USA are a very large, non-homogeneous group of around 75 million people. As far as the voting decision is concerned, you have to differentiate between several factors: Age, for example, plays a role: young Catholics tend to vote Democratic. There is also the question of which ethnic group you belong to. Both Hispanics and African-American Catholics tend to vote Democratic. The same is true for women. You also have to consider church attendance. Those who go to church more often tend to vote Republican. I am somewhat surprised by the high level of support for the party among Catholics. In the autumn polls, it was still 52 percent.

Question: And what about the issue of the protection of life?

Dahlke: For more conservatively orientated Catholics, this has certainly played a major role - precisely because the US bishops have pushed the issue of abortion very high up the agenda in their guidance. There are statements from individual bishops that suggest that this is an important election criterion. And indeed, the old culture wars and the time of John Paul II continue to have an effect. Opposition to abortion was and is a core identity of a certain part of American Catholicism.

Question: What does Trump's election mean for the Catholic Church in the USA?

Dahlke: There are certainly bishops who are in favour of Donald Trump's course and are therefore probably already looking forward to him becoming the new president. Nevertheless, it will be interesting to see how the Republicans will continue to position themselves on the issue of abortion. During the election campaign, they no longer rejected abortion in principle, but referred to regulations in the individual states. So there is no fundamental rejection based on moral theology, but rather a pragmatic, legal view of the whole issue. Many bishops and conservative Catholics will now rightly ask what the position of the party actually is.

Question: The Pope didn't make it easy for American Catholics when he contrasted immigration and abortion at the flying press conference on the flight back from Singapore. You have to choose the lesser of two evils...

Dahlke: Exactly, but what that actually meant remained open. There were different interpretations in the USA itself. In any case, the question arises as to whether the Pope should and may influence elections at all in modern Western societies. That would have to be discussed first. But to the point: since John Paul II, there has been a very strong emphasis on individual ethics. In particular, the rejection of abortion is seen as central. In his pontificate, Francis adds another, new component, a socio-ethical one, namely the well-being of all people - including migrants who hope for a better life for themselves and their families in the United States. Francis emphasises these two aspects, the individual and the social, and even places them on the same level.

Question: What does that mean?

Dahlke: Francis' idea is to broaden the mere focus on abortion somewhat. Catholicism is about the whole of life in all its dimensions.

Question: But what does the election mean for the universal church and the pontificate of Pope Francis?

Dahlke: US presidents also usually make inaugural visits to Rome. I'm not so sure what the atmosphere will be like. Trump and Francis have very different views on migration issues, for example. In this respect, I am curious to see what role the future Vice President J.D. Vance will play. As you know, he was baptised a Catholic in 2019 and could possibly also take on a mediating role.

Question: In an interview with katholisch.de, theologian Massimo Faggioli said that Trump's re-election could mean a democratic step backwards and a deterioration of American democracy. Would you agree with this assessment?

Dahlke: First of all, Trump was elected democratically. Even the defeated Democratic Party has no doubts about that. However, the danger is certainly that the massive polarisation of American society, which became clear during the election campaign, will continue: that families will no longer be able to talk to each other, that people in their communities and even in their churches will no longer be able to discuss things with each other at all. In this respect, this is a danger for democracy, which thrives on dialogue, on being able to have different positions and still find compromises. So we can only hope for a relaxation of tensions.

Question: Do you think it is likely that there will be a détente?

Dahlke: A lot depends on how Trump behaves in the coming days and weeks. As a person, he is already polarising. If he presents a strict political programme, this is likely to further fuel the conflicts in the USA. As the Republicans have also won a majority in the Senate, Trump could be tempted to vigorously push through his agenda. I am a little worried about that.