Twelve years as Pope: What's next for Francis?

Pope Francis has never made a big fuss about his anniversary in office. In the Vatican, the day of the papal election is a public holiday. But only once, on the tenth anniversary on 13 March 2023, has Francis celebrated a service in the chapel of the Santa Marta guest house to mark the occasion.

This year, there is a certain nervousness in the Vatican on the anniversary date. The Pope has been absent for almost a month now. Apart from a brief audio recording of his voice gasping for air, there has been no sign of life. The Vatican press office provides daily updates on what he is doing. The media people learn that the 88-year-old has had breakfast and prayed, that he is undergoing physiotherapy, receiving medication and oxygen - and that he has already appointed more than 30 bishops during his four weeks in the Gemelli clinic.

But for a few days now, their questions have centred on a new topic: the Pope's release from the clinic and his return. They are not getting any answers. "The doctors are sufficiently vague about a date," says Vatican spokesman Matteo Bruni, explaining the communication strategy of the medical team led by Roman internist Sergio Alfieri.

Even the Secretariat of State cannot control rumours

But it is not only the doctors who are currently trying to control the delicate communication on the subject of the Pope's return. The Vatican Secretariat of State is filtering every word and making sure that nothing is communicated that could fuel inappropriate expectations. The two heads of this authority, the Cardinal Secretary of State and the Substitute, are the only people from the Vatican who have seen the Pope and - as far as possible - spoken to him in the last four weeks. According to the Vatican, they have informed him and dealt with the most urgent official business with his approval.

But even the Secretariat of State is unable to control the members of the College of Cardinals and the "Vaticanisti" in the Italian media. And so there are always new and exciting debates in these two spheres. One of these centres on the topic of resignation. Some cardinals, such as the Italian Gianfranco Ravasi or the Frenchman Jean-Marc Aveline, have declared that it is conceivable that the Pope will resign if he is no longer physically able.

Others have almost categorically ruled out such a step - including conservatives such as the German Gerhard Ludwig Müller, but also reformers such as the Italian Matteo Zuppi. Different interpretations of the pope's severe suffering could be heard. While some compared it to the suffering of Christ on the cross - such as the Pole Stanislaw Dziwisz - the Swiss Kurt Koch spoke quite humanly of a "severe trial".

Meanwhile, another debate has begun in Italy's media. This was prompted by an announcement from the Vatican that the Pope's flat in Santa Marta is currently not being remodelled in such a way that it would be suitable for an 88-year-old with chronic respiratory disease. Since then, there has been speculation as to whether the Pope will return to the Vatican at all.

A secret papal flat?

As an alternative, the newspaper "Il Secolo d'Italia" has suggested a return to the Pope's flat next to the Basilica of Santa Maria Maggiore, which has been kept secret until now. This flat was equipped some time ago with the medical equipment that the Pope needs to survive his complex illness.

According to KNA information, it was set up as part of the structural and personnel reorganisation of the papal basilica, which lasted from 2021 to the beginning of 2024. On 20 March 2024, the Pope granted the Lithuanian Archbishop Rolandas Makrickas, who oversaw the renovation, far-reaching special powers. A few months earlier, in December 2023, Francis had said in an interview that he should be buried in this basilica. On 7 December 2024, the trained Vatican diplomat Makrickas was promoted to cardinal.

Will these pieces of the mosaic be enough to support the "Secolo" thesis? According to the newspaper, Francis has already prepared his retirement for the time after his resignation, just as Benedict XVI once did. The decisive factor is whether the Pope's health impairment remains so extreme that he sees it as a reason to resign. The Vatican could take the wind out of the sails of such speculation if it were to announce the Pope's return to the Vatican for Easter (20 April). However, doctors will not allow this for the time being.