Conclave: Guesswork about the smoke

The series of smoke signals from the Sistine Chapel, which are currently informing the world about the conclave,began on Wednesday evening with an unusually long delay. Many Vatican observers and the Vatican's own media had expected black smoke to inform the world of an unsuccessful first round of voting at around 7.30 pm. But then began an agonising wait with no sign of smoke.

Tens of thousands of people in St Peter's Square reached the limits of their patience and tried to speed up the process with demanding applause. And the presenters and commentators of the media reporting live from the square hardly knew what else to say and interpret after two hours of live coverage - until black smoke finally rose into the Roman night sky at 9 pm.

A long sermon as the trigger?

There were various speculations as to how the delay came about. Some Vatican observers pointed out that the introductory meditation by former papal preacher Raniero Cantalamessa was twelve manuscript pages long. It is quite possible that after the "Extra omnes" and the closing of the door, it took 45 minutes for the Capuchin cardinal to deliver his powerful lecture.

Added to this was the fact that many of the papal electors were attending a conclave for the first time and were struggling with the Latin oath formulae. And then there were the elderly and those with walking difficulties, who probably needed some time to "step forward" from their seats to the ballot box, as prescribed by the electoral regulations.

But more serious reasons have also been put forward. The Vatican's own media channel "Vatican News" speculated that the cardinals may have decided to postpone the first round of voting because there was still a need to discuss the rules of procedure. Others pointed out that the non-participation of Italian Cardinal Angelo Becciu (76), who was actually eligible to vote due to his age, could have been the subject of further controversy within the electoral body. Pope Francis had revoked Becciu's cardinalate following a loss-making property deal.

Speculation about an invalid ballot

Experienced conclave observers recalled that in the past there has also been an invalid ballot because one of the cardinals had accidentally cast two ballots. This leads to delays and smoke signals are only permitted after valid ballots.

The suspicion that something "out of sequence" happened on Wednesday was fuelled by the unexpectedly early appearance of smoke from the world's most famous chimney on Thursday lunchtime. The augurs had surmised that a signal was to be expected at twelve at the earliest, but then the smoke rose almost ten minutes earlier. The cause was again the subject of speculation. Experts from "Vatican News" recalled that the cardinals do not have to swear again in the second ballot, but can go to the ballot box without saying a word.

Meanwhile, Italian media are speculating as to whether Cardinal Petro Parolin, who they regard as the favourite, is now approaching a two-thirds majority thanks to coalitions between his camp and other voting packages. However, the "Vaticanisti" currently have no real knowledge of what is going on behind the Vatican walls.